It’s still not clear if Russia is ready to blink again and continue allowing exports or if this time it will try to scupper the deal. “Ukraine has been a very important supplier, and if they have to continue with diminished production over another year, that means that the world will have to find wheat and corn from others to replace that.” “This continues to be very much an issue not just for Ukraine producers but also globally,” said Joseph Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute and former chief economist at the U.S. Since the deal took force in July 2022, Moscow has repeatedly attempted to upend the agreement to extract key concessions, intensifying concerns about the future of Ukraine’s hard-hit agricultural industry and the global food insecurity. Those tactics were on full display this week as negotiators raced to broker a full extension to the grain deal before its scheduled expiration on Monday, the latest scramble to save a key deal that helped ease pressures on vulnerable markets in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. By continuously threatening the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the landmark wartime agreement designed to open up Ukraine’s key farm output for export to world markets, Moscow has also found a way to strangle Kyiv’s agricultural sector-and weaponize resources that aren’t even its own. With its abundant natural gas supply, Russia has long wielded its resource riches to bludgeon Ukraine, Europe, and other dependent customers.
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